{ "asOf": "2026-10-24", "generatedAt": "2026-10-24T07:20:29.744Z", "source": "TraviTools player_daily_snapshots and archived opening maps; public Travian map exports", "definition": "Launch cohort: eligible player accounts in the first capture within 24h of world start. NPC tribes and IDs <=1 excluded. 18 consecutive daily captures (days 0–17). First 72-hour spell starts on days 0–14; four identical daily population AND village-count observations confirm it. Stop follow-up at first missing account observation. No login data or human identity deduplication.", "clusterRule": "Candidate: first flat spell, at least four consecutive observations confirming a spell, one village throughout observed follow-up, no observed population decrease, and maximum observed population minus first observed population <10 across observed follow-up (up to 18 captures). Flag candidate if at least 10 candidates (including itself) lie within Euclidean radius 5 and comprise >=60% of launch-cohort capitals in that radius. Coordinates from the archived opening map, joined by initial capital village ID; non-wrapping distance. First-day coappearance does not prove simultaneous registration or bot ownership.", "raw": { "accounts": 16911, "firstFlatByDay": { "0": 3599, "1": 4132, "2": 4439, "3": 4844, "4": 5256, "5": 5405, "6": 5639, "7": 5765, "8": 5902, "9": 6015, "10": 6117, "11": 6264, "12": 6337, "13": 6396, "14": 6474 }, "firstSevenDayFlatByDay7": 4056, "flatAtDay14": 3068, "events": 6474, "medianStart": 0, "grewAgainAfterConfirmation": 250, "disappearedWithoutSpell": 4594, "returnedAfterMissing": 0, "anyDisappearance": 7964, "observedAtDay17": 8947, "lowGrowthCandidates": 3675, "coordinateCoverage": 16911, "populationBands": [ { "label": "0–9", "events": 2123 }, { "label": "10–49", "events": 1256 }, { "label": "50–99", "events": 557 }, { "label": "100–199", "events": 793 }, { "label": "200–499", "events": 1291 }, { "label": "500+", "events": 454 } ], "belowPopulation": { "10": 2123, "50": 3379, "100": 3936, "200": 4729, "500": 6020 } }, "clusterExcluded": { "accounts": 16135, "firstFlatByDay": { "0": 2824, "1": 3356, "2": 3663, "3": 4068, "4": 4480, "5": 4629, "6": 4863, "7": 4989, "8": 5126, "9": 5239, "10": 5341, "11": 5488, "12": 5561, "13": 5620, "14": 5698 }, "firstSevenDayFlatByDay7": 3289, "flatAtDay14": 2878, "events": 5698, "medianStart": 1, "grewAgainAfterConfirmation": 249, "disappearedWithoutSpell": 4594, "returnedAfterMissing": 0, "anyDisappearance": 7315, "observedAtDay17": 8820, "lowGrowthCandidates": 2899, "coordinateCoverage": 16135, "populationBands": [ { "label": "0–9", "events": 1365 }, { "label": "10–49", "events": 1243 }, { "label": "50–99", "events": 553 }, { "label": "100–199", "events": 792 }, { "label": "200–499", "events": 1291 }, { "label": "500+", "events": 454 } ], "belowPopulation": { "10": 1365, "50": 2608, "100": 3161, "200": 3953, "500": 5244 } }, "allLowGrowthExcluded": { "accounts": 13236, "firstFlatByDay": { "0": 123, "1": 500, "2": 783, "3": 1174, "4": 1583, "5": 1731, "6": 1964, "7": 2090, "8": 2227, "9": 2340, "10": 2442, "11": 2589, "12": 2662, "13": 2721, "14": 2799 }, "firstSevenDayFlatByDay7": 929, "flatAtDay14": 1185, "events": 2799, "medianStart": 4, "grewAgainAfterConfirmation": 212, "disappearedWithoutSpell": 4594, "returnedAfterMissing": 0, "anyDisappearance": 5940, "observedAtDay17": 7296, "lowGrowthCandidates": 0, "coordinateCoverage": 13236, "populationBands": [ { "label": "0–9", "events": 32 }, { "label": "10–49", "events": 181 }, { "label": "50–99", "events": 272 }, { "label": "100–199", "events": 571 }, { "label": "200–499", "events": 1289 }, { "label": "500+", "events": 454 } ], "belowPopulation": { "10": 32, "50": 213, "100": 485, "200": 1056, "500": 2345 } }, "sensitivity": [ { "radius": 3, "minimum": 10, "localFraction": 0.6, "flagged": 1, "summary": { "accounts": 16910, "firstFlatByDay": { "0": 3598, "1": 4131, "2": 4438, "3": 4843, "4": 5255, "5": 5404, "6": 5638, "7": 5764, "8": 5901, "9": 6014, "10": 6116, "11": 6263, "12": 6336, "13": 6395, "14": 6473 }, "firstSevenDayFlatByDay7": 4055, "flatAtDay14": 3068, "events": 6473, "medianStart": 0, "grewAgainAfterConfirmation": 250, "disappearedWithoutSpell": 4594, "returnedAfterMissing": 0, "anyDisappearance": 7963, "observedAtDay17": 8947, "lowGrowthCandidates": 3674, "coordinateCoverage": 16910, "populationBands": [ { "label": "0–9", "events": 2122 }, { "label": "10–49", "events": 1256 }, { "label": "50–99", "events": 557 }, { "label": "100–199", "events": 793 }, { "label": "200–499", "events": 1291 }, { "label": "500+", "events": 454 } ], "belowPopulation": { "10": 2122, "50": 3378, "100": 3935, "200": 4728, "500": 6019 } } }, { "radius": 5, "minimum": 10, "localFraction": 0.6, "flagged": 776, "summary": { "accounts": 16135, "firstFlatByDay": { "0": 2824, "1": 3356, "2": 3663, "3": 4068, "4": 4480, "5": 4629, "6": 4863, "7": 4989, "8": 5126, "9": 5239, "10": 5341, "11": 5488, "12": 5561, "13": 5620, "14": 5698 }, "firstSevenDayFlatByDay7": 3289, "flatAtDay14": 2878, "events": 5698, "medianStart": 1, 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"returnedAfterMissing": 0, "anyDisappearance": 7180, "observedAtDay17": 8780, "lowGrowthCandidates": 2724, "coordinateCoverage": 15960, "populationBands": [ { "label": "0–9", "events": 1194 }, { "label": "10–49", "events": 1241 }, { "label": "50–99", "events": 551 }, { "label": "100–199", "events": 792 }, { "label": "200–499", "events": 1291 }, { "label": "500+", "events": 454 } ], "belowPopulation": { "10": 1194, "50": 2435, "100": 2986, "200": 3778, "500": 5069 } } }, { "radius": 5, "minimum": 20, "localFraction": 0.6, "flagged": 2, "summary": { "accounts": 16909, "firstFlatByDay": { "0": 3597, "1": 4130, "2": 4437, "3": 4842, "4": 5254, "5": 5403, "6": 5637, "7": 5763, "8": 5900, "9": 6013, "10": 6115, "11": 6262, "12": 6335, "13": 6394, "14": 6472 }, "firstSevenDayFlatByDay7": 4054, "flatAtDay14": 3067, "events": 6472, "medianStart": 0, "grewAgainAfterConfirmation": 250, "disappearedWithoutSpell": 4594, "returnedAfterMissing": 0, "anyDisappearance": 7963, "observedAtDay17": 8946, 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